Release:
2021. Vol. 7. № 1 (25)About the authors:
Albert E. Brand, Postgraduate Student, Department of Algebra and Mathematical Logics, University of Tyumen; brand.albert@yandex.ruAbstract:
This article assesses the relationship between the level of innovation and the process of spreading generations of an industrial product among the consumers on the example of generations of a stationary game console from Sony. This work follows the scientific direction of modeling and forecasting the spread of innovations; it contains the results of the analysis of the dynamics in the change of successive generations of an industrial product. The relevance of the research topic lies in the increased competition between companies engaged in innovative activities. This results in the need to determine the reasonable directions of technical, technological, and market development of the developed innovations in the form of new and improved products.
This study uses the mathematical model by F. Bass, supplemented by the provisions of T. Islam and N. Meade on the variability of consumer behavior of different generations. The conducted review of research literature has revealed an insufficient elaboration of the issue of a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the relationship between the rate of spread of generations and the changes made to them. The authors draw hypotheses about the independence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other and the dependence of the level of innovativeness of the next generation of industrial products on technological, consumer and marketing changes. As a set of changes, this article proposes parameters of the purchase price and the cost of operating each generation. The authors have tested the hypothesis on statistical data of generational sales for 1994-2019 using correlation analysis.
The results have shown the absence of the influence of the market potentials of successive generations from each other, as well as the presence of a connection and its strength between the level of innovativeness of the next generation and the changes made in the generations. The data obtained can be used for further mathematical formalization of the influence of the level of innovativeness of generations on the process of their distribution.
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