Stochastic forecasting of soil condition taking into account radiative heat transfer

About the authors:

Klavdiia A. Spasennikova, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Earth Cryosphere, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; kspasennikova@gmail.com

Gennady V. Anikin, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Leading Researcher, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; anikin@ikz.ru

Abstract:

The current active development of natural and energy resources of the Arctic zone is closely connected with the construction of roads on soil grounds of the permafrost zone. It is accompanied by an active change in the natural thermal regime of permafrost.

To prevent road deformation, the authors have developed a calculation method that allows predicting temperature changes in soils with sufficient accuracy when designing objects located in permafrost conditions.

Previously, the authors solved Stefan’s problem taking into account random changes in meteorological characteristics, such as wind speed, atmosphere temperature, and snow cover height.

In this paper, stochastic forecasting is used to simulate the ground state under the embankment of a roadway, taking into account the stochasticity of such parameters of the problem as solar and infrared radiation of the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere.

The authors consider 48 variants of the development of events throughout the year, each of which is generated using the Monte Carlo method based on the distribution of meteorological characteristics: wind speed, atmospheric temperature, and snow cover height, obtained by averaging the archival data of the Igarka meteorological station. Solar radiation and infrared radiation of the Earth’s surface and atmosphere were obtained by averaging the NASA data. For each version of the situation in the future, the temperature fields in the calculated area under the road were calculated. The probability of finding ground in the thawed state at arbitrary points of the calculated region is calculated.

References:

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