Application of Cognitive Modeling for the Research Aspects of Emergency Situations

About the authors:

Alexander P. Sukhodolov, Dr. Sci. (Еcon.), Professor, Rector, Baikal State University (Irkutsk); rector@bgu.ru

Valery N. Andriyanov, Cand. Sci. (Jur.), Associate Professor, Honored Lawyer of the Russian Federation, Deputy Chairman of the Academic Council of the Institute of State and Law, Department of National Security of the Baikal State University (Irkutsk); andriyanov-vn@rambler.ru

Valentina A. Marenko, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Sobolev Institute of Mathematics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Omsk); marenko@ofim.oscsbras.ru

Vyacheslav E. Lozhnikov, Postgraduate Student, Department of Theoretical Physics, Omsk State University; vereskanthem@gmail.com

Abstract:

With the increasing number of emergencies nowadays, conceptual models and statistics are used to study various natural and man-made emergencies. The authors suggest using cognitive modeling, which has been developing as an interdisciplinary scientific direction.

This article aims to illustrate the possibilities of cognitive modeling to study the aspects of emergencies and to illustrate the results of testing the authors’ software for conducting a simulation experiment with the cognitive model created.

The authors provide a brief overview of the legislation and scientific publications on the problem, which reveals the conceptual apparatus of emergencies as threats to the safety of people and the environment. That has allowed forming the problem field, which includes “the safety of people in emergencies”, “destruction” of an object, e. g. “fire”, “the emergence of toxic substances”, the ensuing “panic”, and “waiting time” for the rescue services to arrive.

The authors created a cognitive map in the form of a weighted oriented graph with the target factor “the safety of people in emergency situations”. They performed reconciliation of reflective expert assessments with the use of mathematical statistics, formulating expert rules based on cause-effect reasoning.

Then, the authors conducted a simulation experiment, the algorithm of which was constructed using numerical methods. The simulation experiment used the authors’ program developed in the framework of import substitution, in addition to Microsoft Excel.

The experiment showed the coincidence of the results obtained with the help of foreign and copyright software, including that with an increase in “panic” and “rescuers arrival time”, the safety of people in emergency situations decreases. Copyright software will be used in further research to analyze other socio-economic models.

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