Release:2017, Vol. 3. №1
About the author:Alexander V. Kugaevskikh, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, Tyumen State Medical University; firstname.lastname@example.org
Under present-day conditions the accurate measurements of the yield on gas condensate wells are difficult and, as a consequence, prediction is difficult too. Typically, the parameters are measured in the collection areas, but you cannot get a clear picture for each specific well. Nevertheless, based on the history of changes in some parameters of the well, its output parameters can be predicted. In this case, it is necessary to take into account the mutual influence of these parameters and the history of their change.
The study described in this paper is aimed to obtain a mechanism for predicting the flow of a gas-condensate mixture and a gas-condensate ratio with a forecast error of no more than 5%. The practical application of the generalized regression neural network to the problem of prediction of some well parameters is presented. The rationale for using this topology is given. The conducted experimental check showed the acceptable quality of the proposed algorithm. The dependence of the prediction error on the number of learning points is given. Based on the experimental data, the application of GRNN network for forecasting the gas production rate and gas-condensate ratio is considered promising.
Nevertheless, the application of the neural network does not take into account the phenomenon physics, which also negatively affects the accuracy of the selected parameters prediction.