Tyumen State University Herald. Physical and Mathematical Modeling. Oil, Gas, Energy


Releases Archive. Вестник ТюмГУ. Физико-математические науки. Информатика (№7, 2013)

The stochastic prognosis of ground condition under the objects built in the permafrost

About the authors:

Gennady V. Anikin, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Leading Researcher, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; anikin@ikz.ru

Aleksandr A. Vakulin, Master Student, Polytechnic School, University of Tyumen; glock100@gmail.com

Klavdiia A. Spasennikova, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Earth Cryosphere, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; kspasennikova@gmail.com

Sergey N. Plotnikov, Lead Engineer, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science


The study estimates the condition of the ground under the Varandey Oil Field, cooled by flat heat stabilizers produced by “Fundamentproekt” Co. Forty seven options are developed for further development of events for eight years ahead, each of these options generated via the Monte Carlo method on the basis of distribution of meteorological data obtained through averaging the archival data from Varandey meteorological station. Temperature profiles of computational regions under the oil tank were calculated for every option of the situation development. It is demonstrated that ground temperature values scatter considerably, which makes the application of conventional single-option forecast doubtful. In connection with this, the study suggests stochastic forecast that allows identifying the worst scenario which must be considered in the course of designing.


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