The stochastic prognosis of ground condition under the objects built in the permafrost

About the authors:

Gennady V. Anikin, Cand. Sci. (Phys.-Math.), Leading Researcher, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; anikin@ikz.ru

Aleksandr A. Vakulin, Engineer, Institute of Physics and Technology, University of Tyumen; glock100@gmail.com

Klavdiia A. Spasennikova, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Earth Cryosphere, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; kspasennikova@gmail.com

Sergey N. Plotnikov, Lead Engineer, Earth Cryosphere Institute, Siberian Branch of Russian Academy of Science

Abstract:

The study estimates the condition of the ground under the Varandey Oil Field, cooled by flat heat stabilizers produced by “Fundamentproekt” Co. Forty seven options are developed for further development of events for eight years ahead, each of these options generated via the Monte Carlo method on the basis of distribution of meteorological data obtained through averaging the archival data from Varandey meteorological station. Temperature profiles of computational regions under the oil tank were calculated for every option of the situation development. It is demonstrated that ground temperature values scatter considerably, which makes the application of conventional single-option forecast doubtful. In connection with this, the study suggests stochastic forecast that allows identifying the worst scenario which must be considered in the course of designing.

References:

1. Dubina, M.M. Forecast and management of thermomechanical behavior for “structureenvironment” system in the permafrost zone // Kriosfera neftegazonosnyh provincij [The cryosphere of oil and gas areas]. Tyumen, 2004. Pp. 56-57. (in Russian). 2. Vakulin, A.A. Osnovy geokriologii [Geocryology Fundamentals]. Tyumen: Tyumen State University Publ., 2011. 220 p. (in Russian).

3. Andreev, M.A., Mironov, I.A., Terent'ev, A.V. Construction of bases and foundations of oil tanks in the complicated conditions of the Arctic. Promyshlennoe i grazhdanskoe stroitel'stvo — Industrial and Civil Engineering. № 9. 2006. Pp. 35-36. (in Russian).

4. Anikin, G.V., Plotnikov, S.N., Vakulin, A.A., Spasennikova, K.A. Calculation for the foundation stabilizing temperature under the oil reservoir. Vestnik Tjumenskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta — Tyumen State University Herald. 2009. № 6. Pp. 35-45. (in Russian).

5. Samarskij, A.A, Vabishhevich, P.N. Vychislitel'naja teploperedacha [Computational heat transmission]. M.: Editorial URSS, 2003. 784 p. (in Russian).

6. Koroljuk, V.S., Portenko, N.I., Skorohod, A.V. et al. Spravochnik po teorii verojatnostej i matematicheskoj statistike [Probability theory and mathematical statistics: a guide]. M.:Nauka, 1985. 640 p. (in Russian).

7. Ermakov, S.M. Metod Monte-Karlo v vychislitel'noj matematike [Monte Carlo method in numerical mathematics]. St. Petersburg, 2011. 192 p. (in Russian).

8. Korneev, V.G. Parallel'noe programmirovanie v MPI [MPI concurrent programming].Novosibirsk. 2002, 215 p. (in Russian).

9. Dolgih, G.M., Okunev, S.N., Podenko, L.S., Feklistov, V.N. Effective maintenance of foundation stabilizing temperature systems for permafrost. [Nadezhnost', jeffektivnost' I upravljaemost' sistem temperaturnoj stabilizacii vechnomerzlyh gruntov osnovanij zdanij I sooruzhenij]. Mat-ly mezhdunarod. konf. «Kriogennye resursy poljarnyh i gornyh regionov. Sostojanie i perspektivy inzhenernogo merzlotovedenija». Tyumen, 2008. Pp. 34-39. (in Russian).

10. Anikin, G.V., Plotnikov, S.N., Spasennikova, K.A. Computer simulation for heat and weight transmission in ground horizontal cooling systems. Kriosfera Zemli — Earth cryosphere. 2011. Vol. 15. № 1. Pp. 33-39. (in Russian).