Prospects of Gazprom against the backdrop of global economic trends

About the author:

Lyudmila I. Tenkovskaya, Cand. Sci. (Econ), Associate Professor, Stock Market Analyst, Moscow Exchange MICEX-RTS, Moscow, Russia, tenkovskaya.lyudmila@gmail.com; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2055-1497

Abstract:

Economic research provides a broad understanding of forecasting company stock prices based on the impact of trends in external economic factors. However, PJSC Gazprom and its stock prices in the current economic situation have not been an object of study before. This article aims to forecast Gazprom’s stock prices depending on the trends in world natural gas prices, China’s gross domestic product (GDP), and the Moscow Exchange Index (IMOEX). In accordance with this objective, the following tasks have been solved: considering theoretical aspects of Gazprom functioning in external economic conditions; selecting an appropriate methodology for economic modeling of the factors under study; determining the trends and forecast values of world natural gas prices, China’s GDP, the IMOEX, and Gazprom’s stock prices. That has required using ADF test, KPSS test, centered moving average method, economic and mathematical modeling based on correlation and regression analysis, as well as polynomial and linear trends. The author presents the models of a polynomial trend, a linear trend, and multiple linear regression to forecast world prices for natural gas, China’s GDP, the IMOEX, and Gazprom’s stock prices, respectively. The results have established that global economic trends may positively affect the growth of Gazprom’s share prices, since they will increase the economic efficiency of this company. If the identified trends persist in the future, it is advisable to invest in Gazprom.

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