Food security risks in the context of a new global reality

Tyumen State University Herald. Social, Economic, and Law Research


Release:

2022, Vol. 8. № 2 (30)

Title: 
Food security risks in the context of a new global reality


For citation: Andrianova E. V., Davydenko V. A., Ushakova Yu. V. 2022. “Food security risks in
the context of a new global reality”. Tyumen State University Herald. Social, Economic, and
Law Research, vol. 8, no. 2 (30), pp. 6–66. DOI: 10.21684/2411-7897-2022-8-2-6-66

About the authors:

Elena V. Andrianova, Cand. Sci. (Soc.), Head of Department of General and Economic Sociology, Institute of Finance and Economics, University of Tyumen; Senior Researcher, West-Siberian Branch of the Federal Research Sociological Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (Tyumen); e.v.andrianova@utmn.ru; ORCID: 0000-0002-7769-9206

Vladimir A. Davydenko, Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor, Head of the Research Center, University of Tyumen; v.a.davydenko@utmn.ru; ORCID: 0000-0001-8389-4254

Yulia V. Ushakova, Postgraduate Student, University of Tyumen; y.v.ushakova@utmn.ru; ORCID: 0000-0002-6671-6066

Abstract:

The article is devoted to the study of modern challenges of global instability and socioeconomic reality in the context of the determinants of the situation, taken from the point of view of the security of rural areas of various countries of the world. The influence of such determinants as the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine is considered. The COVID-19 pandemic has dealt a severe strike to the entire global economy due to the need for strict restrictive measures (quarantine, self-isolation, lockdown), which, as expected, is heading for the deepest recession in 2022-2023. The crisis caused by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, followed by total sanctions against Russia, should, it seems, lead to quite strong detrimental consequences both in the food and agricultural sectors of these and other countries of the world. The relevance of the topic is connected with the fact that the traditional problems of risk and uncertainty have now received a special, existential sound all over the world. The purpose of the article is to try to understand and explain the comprehensive outcomes and trends that are caused by various risks of the new global reality for national security, including food security, based on statistical data and author’s forecast estimates. The tasks that are set and solved in the article: description of global risks of a very different nature — sanctions, trade, price, financial, energy, logistics, production, agricultural, food, humanitarian. The article is presented in the traditions of economic and sociological theories of the study of risks, trust and uncertainties, from the point of view of scientific approaches of structural functionalism, pragmatism and existentialism. The authors rely on statistics from the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO). The presented risk analysis contributes to understanding the problem of food security risks in the context of a new global reality.

References:

  1. Alchian A. 2007. “Uncertainty, evolution and economic theory”. Origins: from the experience of studying economics as a structure and process. 2nd ed. Edited by Ya. I. Kuzminov and V. S. Avtonomov etc. Moscow: Higher School of Economics Publishing House. 533 pp. [In Russian]
  2. Beck U. 2000. “Risk society. On the way to another modern”. Translated from German by V. Sedelnik and N. Fedorova; afterword by A. Filippov. Moscow: Progress-Tradition. 384 pp. [In Russian]
  3. Giddens A. 1994. “Fate, risk and security”. THESIS, no. 5, pp. 107–134. [In Russian]
  4. Giddens A. 2005. Organization of society: An essay on the theory of structuration. Moscow: Academic Project. 528 p. [In Russian]
  5. Grishaev V. V. 2002. Risk and society (Discussion on the concept of risk and bibliography). Moscow: Sociological Forum. 37 p. Accessed on 18 April 2022. http://hpsy.ru/authors/x2578.htm. [In Russian]
  6. Data of the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation. https://journal.open-broker.ru/research/import-rf-itogi-2021-goda/ [In Russian]
  7. Davidson P. 1991. “Is probability theory appropriate for uncertainty? Post-Keynesian Perspective”. Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 129–143. [In Russian]
  8. Keynes J. M. 2007. The general theory of employment, interest and money. Favorites. Moscow: Eksmo. 960 pp. [In Russian]
  9. Luhmann N. 1994. “The concept of risk.”. THESIS, no. 5, pp. 135–160. [In Russian]
  10. Mitrofanov A. 2020. “Nuclear war scenarios. What can it be?”. Military Review of 27 July 2020. Accessed on 18 April 2022. https://topwar.ru/173404-kakoj-ona-mozhet-byt-scenariijadernoj-vojny.html [In Russian]
  11. Mlechin L. 2017. “The world has returned to the old days, when it was believed that a nuclear war was quite possible”. New Newspaper, no. 1 (2578). Accessed on 18 April 2022. https://www.gorby.ru/presscenter/publication/show_29721/ [In Russian]
  12. Knight F. 1994. “Concepts of risk and uncertainty”. THESIS, no. 5, pp. 12–28. [In Russian]
  13. Knight F. H. 2003. Risk, uncertainty and proft. Translated from English. Moscow: Delo. 360 p. [In Russian]
  14. Radaev V. V. 2002. “Main directions of development of modern economic sociology”. Economic sociology: New approaches to institutional and network analysis. Moscow: ROSSPEN. Pp. 3–18. [In Russian]
  15. Risk. Etymological online dictionary of the Russian language by Max Fasmer. 4th ed. 2006. Accessed on 18 April 2022 https://gufo.me/dict/vasmer/ [In Russian]
  16. Ernst and Young LLC — assessment and consulting services. COVID-19 in megacities of the world. Research of practices of combating the consequences of the pandemic. 2021. 49 pp. [In Russian]
  17. White H. 2002. “Markets and frms: Refections on the prospects of economic sociology”. Economic sociology: New approaches to institutional and network analysis. Edited by V. V. Radaev. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 280 p. [In Russian]
  18. Falichev O. V. 2022. “Neural networks on the battlefeld. The special operation emphasized the role of precision weapons”. Independent Newspaper. Accessed on 18 April 2022. https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2022-04-14/1_1185_armament1.html [In Russian]
  19. Shtompka P. 2012. Trust is the basis of society. Translated by N. V. Morozova. Moscow: Logos. 440 p. [In Russian]
  20. Arrow K. J. 1957. “Statistics and economic policy”. Econometrica, no. 25 (4). 523 pp. DOI: 10.2307/1905381.
  21. Beck U. 1992. Risk society: Towards a new modernity. Translated by M. Ritter. London: Sage Publications. 260 pp.
  22. Beck U. 1994. “The reinvention of politics: Towards a theory of refexive modernization”. Refexive modernization: Politics, tradition and aesthetics in the modern social order. Edited by U. Beck, A. Giddens, S. Lash. Stanford (CA): Stanford university press. Pр. 1–55.
  23. Berger G. 1964. Phenomenologies of time and prospective. Presse Universities of France. 288 pp.
  24. Bradfeld R., Wright G., Burt G., Cairns G., Heijden K. V. D. 2005. “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning”. Futures, no. 37 (8), pp. 795–812. DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003/
  25. Coleman J. S. 1990. Foundations of social theory. Belnap Press, xvi +. 993 pp.
  26. COVID-19 Coronavirus pandemic. Report coronavirus cases by Johns Hopkins University. Accessed on 18 April 2022. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  27. Giddens A. 1990. Consequences of modernity. Stanford University Press. 188 pp.
  28. Giddens A. 2002. Runaway world: How globalization is reshaping our lives. 2nd ed. London: Profle Books. 142 pp.
  29. Global economic prospects. 2022. A world bank group fagship report. Finance for an equitable recovery. World development report. 259 pp.
  30. Global economic prospects. 2022. Washington: World Bank. 46 pp.
  31. Kahn H., Wiener A. J. 1967. “The next thirty-three years: A framework for speculation”. Daedalus, no. 96 (3), pp. 705–732.
  32. Kahn H. 1965. Thinking about the unthinkable. New York: Horizon Press. 254 pp.
  33. Keynes J. M. 1921. A treatise on probability. New York: MacMillan. 489 рp.
  34. Lehr T., Lorenz U., Willert M., Rohrbeck R. 2017. “Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists’ teams”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, no. 124, pp. 214–224.
  35. Luhmann N. 1993/2002. Risk: A sociological theory. Berlin; New York: Walter de Gruyter. 236 pр.
  36. Luhmann N. 1979. Trust and power. Chichester: John Wiley and Sons, xix +. 208 pp.
  37. Reinhart C. M. 2021. “From health crisis to fnancial distress”. Policy Research Working Paper 9616. World Bank, Washington, DC. 37 pp.
  38. Seligman A. 1997. The problem of trust. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. 231 pp.
  39. Shackle G. L. S. 1988. A student’s pilgrimage. Recollections of eminent economists. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK. Pp. 57–66.
  40. Shackle G. L. S. 1972. Epistemics and economics: A critique of economie doctrines. Cambridge University Press. 482 pp.
  41. Short J. 1990. “Hazards, risks, and enterprise: Approaches to science, law, and social policy”. Law and Society Review, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 179–198.
  42. Sztompka P. 2016. Kapital spolecznv; teoria przestrzeni miedzyludzkiei. Krakow: Znak Publishers. 350 pр.
  43. Sztompka P. 1999. A sociological theory. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, xii +. 214 pp.
  44. The importance of Ukraine and the Russian Federation for global agricultural markets and the risks associated with the current confict. 2022. Food and Agriculture. Organization of the United Nations. Rome. Information update as of 8 March 2022. 41 pp.
  45. Trust at risk: Implications for EU policies and institutions. 2017. Report of the expert group “Trust at risk? Foresight on the medium-term implications for European. Research and innovation policies (trust foresight)”. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 196 pp.
  46. White H. C. 2002. Markets from networks: Socioeconomic models of production. Princeton: Princeton University Press, xvii. 389 pp.