Release:
2019, Vol. 5. №4(20)About the authors:
Marsel M. Nizamutdinov, Cand. Sci. (Tech.), Associate Professor, Head of the Sector of Economic and Mathematical Modelling, Institute of Social and Economic Research — Subdivision of the Ufa Federal Research Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences; marsel_n@mail.ruAbstract:
The demographic policy of the Russian Federation is aimed at increasing the population in the country. In this connection, management decisions made at the regional level focus at attracting skilled migrants, increasing the birth rate, and reducing mortality. On the one hand, such politics affects the size of the population; on the other hand, the reaction of the population can adjust the policy. In turn, state programs are intended for a long period of time, thus, there is a need to assess the effectiveness of the taken decisions. Therefore, the authors have proposed a concept of an agent-based model of demographic processes at the regional level. In addition, they have developed the model itself, which aims to increase the accuracy of forecasting the population in the face of changing socio-economic indicators. Each of the agents (represented by “Person” and “Region”) have their own set of characteristics. To describe the logic of the agent behavior, the authors have used statistical (regression and cluster analysis) and probability (Bernoulli, Gamma, Betta, exponential distribution) methods. The life cycle of the agent “Person” is presented in the developed state diagram. The testing of the agent-based model was performed in solving the problems of forecasting the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan on the basis of the prognosis data from the RF Ministry of Economic Development.References:
Atnabaev A. R. 2019. “Study of the natural movement of the population in the Republic of Bashkortostan using the parametric method”. Proceedings of the Ufa Scientific Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences, no 3, pp. 81-86. [In Russian]
Bakhtizin A. R. 2008. Agent-Based Models of the Economy. Moscow: Economics. [In Russian]
Bedniy M. S. 1980. Boy or Girl?: (Medical-Demographic Analysis). Moscow: Statistika. [In Russian]
Gaynanov D. A., Gafarova E. A. 2015. “The concept of agent-based model of regional development”. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference “Information Technologies of Intellectual Decision Support”, pp. 180-183. [In Russian]
Brief results of the pilot survey “Family and Fertility”. https://www.gks.ru/free_doc/2006/demogr.htm [In Russian]
Makarov V. L., Bakhtizin A. R., Sushko E. D., Ageeva A. F. 2017. “Artificial society and real demographic processes”. Economics and Mathematical Methods, vol. 53, no 1, pp. 3-18. [In Russian]
Nizamutdinov M. M., Atnabaeva А. R. 2019. “Conceptual and methodological aspects of developing an agent-based model of demographic processes at the regional level (on example of the Republic of Bashkortostan)”. Artificial Societies, vol. 14, no 4. DOI: 10.18254/S207751800007514-4
RIA Novosti. 2019. “Quality of life rating in the regions of the Russian Federation”. https://ria.ru/20190218/1550940417.html [In Russian]
Fu Z., Hao L. 2018. “Agent-based modeling of China’s rural-urban migration and social network structure”. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, vol. 490, pp. 1061-1075. DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.08.145
Lynn R., Vanhanen T. 2006. IQ and Global Inequality. Augusta: Washington Summit Publishers.
Silverman E., Bijak J., Hilton J., Dung Cao V., Noble J. 2013. “When demography met social simulation: a tale of two modeling approaches”. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 16, no 4, art. 9. DOI: 10.18564/jasss.2327
