Territorial Transformation or Inter-Municipal Cooperation: Comparative Impact Assessment Based on Economic and Mathematical Modeling

About the authors:

Vladimir V. Oreshnikov, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ufa Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; voresh@mail.ru

Aysylu G. Ataeva, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Senior Researcher, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Ufa Federal Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences; ice_lu@mail.ru

Abstract:

The development of municipalities with limited resources requires certain measures to optimize their use, which may include inter-municipal cooperation (the economic path) and territorial transformation (the administrative path). This article focuses on the experience of the Russian Federation.

For the preliminary assessment of the consequences of such transformations, the authors suggest the methods of economic and mathematical modeling. For this, they first a) define the principles of forming an economic-mathematical model of a municipality, b) propose a conceptual scheme for modeling its development, c) choose a list of indicators, and d) adapt an economic-mathematical model to assess the consequences of territorial transformation of municipalities and inter-municipal cooperation. Mathematical formalization of the proposed model uses the data of the Meleuz District of the Republic of Bashkortostan. The authors define the parameters of regression equations, which describe the key relationships in the municipal system.

The results indicate a sufficiently high quality of the equations obtained. In the course of testing the model, the authors have distinguished three scenarios for the development of a municipal area. They are 1) preservation of the existing situation and current trends of development; 2) the transformation of the municipal district into an urban district as a result of the unification of 16 rural settlements with the urban settlement of Meleuz; and 3) agglomeration as a result of urbanization and tightening of the economic space around the “points of growth”. A set of model experiments allowed calculating prognostic indicators of the development of the area in each of these cases, comparing the expected effects of each of the scenarios.

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