Release:2017, Vol. 3. №3
About the authors:Lev S. Mazelis, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), Head of the Department of Mathematics and Modeling, Vladivostok State University of Economics and Service; firstname.lastname@example.org
This article is devoted to the development of a method for quantitative analysis of the socio-economic system development risks that makes it possible to assess the influence of external factors of the system on the main indicators of its development, taking into account internal factors, interests of stakeholders and existing uncertainties. The proposed method is based on the fuzzy “stakeholder” model of SWOT. To simulate uncertainties, it is proposed to use a fuzzy-multiple approach that allows to take into account the blurring of expert information, as well as inaccurate information about changes in the external environment of the system and relationships with stakeholders. Approbation of the method was carried out on the example of socio-economic development of Vladivostok. For the municipal entity have been identified and ill-defined 35 factors of the internal environment, 18 external factors and 11 indicators of social and economic development. For external factors, fuzzy equalizing factors are calculated that characterize the ability of strengths and weaknesses to correct the force of impact of opportunities and threats. Fuzzy risks of failure to reach target values of indicators are calculated. The riskiness of the development of the urban district for the three main groups of stakeholders (“Population”, “Government” and “Business”) is assessed at various risk acceptance levels.