Release:

Vesntik TSU. Economy (#11). 2013Title:

Assessment of license value for technology of “oilabsorbing barrier” (bon)
Author:
Oleg A. Tarasov

About the author:

Oleg A. Tarasov,
Cand. Phys. and Math. Sci., Assistant Professor, Department for Mathematical Methods, Information Technologies and Management Systems in Economics, Institute for Finance and Economics, Tyumen State University

Abstract:

This article focuses on the method of assessing license value for a water-reservoir cleaning technology from the oil spill in the accident at an oil platform. The volume of the license is proportional to a mathematic expectation of damage caused by an accident, and the probability density of damage is given by the degree function with an index equalling 1.5. With the normalization the probability density functions used the lower and upper limits as 1/100 and 1 from the costs of cleaning the surface of water during an accident on the platform Deepwater Horizon, which was equal to $ 3 billion. Mathematical expectation of damage from an accident a year was 1/10 of the mentioned costs. License price was determined by eliminating royalty as a sum of the discounted annual expectation damages. The royalty rate was 4% and the discount rate was 20% per year. The market value of the license for the technology of “oil absorbing barrier (bon)” for one oil platform of British Petroleum with the right to use this technology for unlimited time was 18 million rubles. The developed method can be used to estimate the cost of technologies that eliminate the effects of major technological disasters.

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