System traps: energy forecasts for Russia and the Tyumen region

Tyumen State University Herald. Social, Economic, and Law Research


Vesntik TSU. Economy (#11). 2013

System traps: energy forecasts for Russia and the Tyumen region

About the authors:

Vladimir A. Davydenko, Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor, Head of the Research Center, Institute of Finance and Economics, University of Tyumen;; ORCID: 0000-0001-8389-4254

Gulnara F. Romashkina, Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor, Department of Economic Security, System Analysis and Control, University of Tyumen; ORCID: 0000-0002-7764-5566, Scopus Author ID: 16437113600, WoS ResearcherID:


This article focuses on the analysis of global trends in energy development, where Russia and the Tyumen region act in the context of global dynamics in terms of the theory of natural resource abundance (“resource curse”, “Dutch disease”). We consider the energy and raw materials as the base case scenario for Russia and the Tyumen region development, based on the rent distribution chains (E. Gurvich, K. Gaddy, B. Ickes, N. Suslov). The author employs the theories of institutional traps (V. Polterovich), traps of absence of confidence (S. Guriev), traps of competitiveness (V. Mau), that have a system nature and therefore, identified by the authors of this article as system traps. The analysis of the database and forecasts about the prospects for international energy markets up to the year of 2040 based on the methodology International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013). It is shown that all-Russian energy trend is jointly involved in the world’s growing trends according to key indicators of the production of liquid fuels (oil and other liquid hydrocarbons), coal, natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy sources till 2040. This means that in the context of the energy trend in the next 25 years, Russia and the Tyumen region as “energy region” which are “inbuilt” in the global energy context are not endangered. However, as, on the one hand, the well-being of the extracting sector in Russia is associated with access to rent, and on the other hand, for the bias in favor of the commodity sector the retribution in the form of depressive conditions for high-tech industries is inevitable, these factors in the aggregate form a system trap combining three types of traps: the institutional trap, traps of distrust, and the traps of competitiveness.


1. International Energy Outlook 2013. With Projections to 2040. July 2013. US Energy Information Administration office of Energy Analysis. U.S. Department of Energy. Washington, DC 20585. This publication is on the WEB at:

2. Russian Statistics Service data, Tyumen Statistics Service data, the materials of Central Dispatch Administration of Ministry for Energy of the Russian Federation; The results of production activity of energy industry in Russia // Russian Energy. № 1. 2000-2013; Summarising indicators of energy production in the Russian Federation // Info FEC. № 1. 2000-2013; Statistics. Razvedka i dobycha — Exploration and production. № 1. 2005-2013. (in Russian).

3. See more: The concept of socio-economic development strategy of the regions of the Russian Federation till 2030. Ministry for Regional Development of the Russian Federation. (in Russian).

4. Russian Statistics Service data. Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indexes. 2009: a collection of articles / Russian Statistics Service. Moscow, 2009. Pp. 519-520; Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indexes. 2012: a collection of articles / Russian Statistics Service. M., 2012. Pp. 515-516. Analytical Bulletin: Power energy: trends and forecasts. № 9. Results of 2012. (in Russian).

5. Russian export of basic commodities in 2012 // Mirovaja torgovlja i mezhdunarodnye gruzopotoki v 2012 g. [World trade and international freight traffic in 2012]. Moscow, 2013. (in Russian).

6. Bogojavlenskij, V.I. Achievements and problems in the geoexploration and Energy sectors of Russia. Burenie i neft' — Drilling and Oil. 2013. № 03. (in Russian).

7. Krjukov, V.A. Oil and gas sabotage. JeKO — ECO. 2013. № 8. (in Russian).

8. Gaddy, K., Ickes, B. Will Russia get off the «raw needle». Pro et Contra. 2011. № 5 (September-October). V. 15. Pp. 23-39. (in Russian).

9. Polterovich, V., Popov, V., Tonis, A. Mechanisms of «resource curse» and Economic Policy. Voprosy jekonomiki — The Issues of Economics. 2007. № 6. Pp. 46-48. (in Russian).

10. Suslov, N.I. Rent is everything. JeKO — ECO. 2012. № 6. Pp. 81-93. (in Russian).

11. Gurvich, E. Oil lease in the Russian economy. Voprosy jekonomiki — The Issues of Economics. 2010. № 11. Pp. 4-24. (in Russian).

12. Chigrin, A.D. It is not profitable to produce: the effects of «Dutch disease» in Russia. JeKO — ECO. 2008. № 1. Pp. 2-18. (in Russian).

13. Mau V. Between modernization and stagnation: Economic Policy in 2012. Voprosy jekonomiki — The Issues of Economics. 2013. № 2. Pp. 4-23. (in Russian).

14. Suslov, N.I. Energy in Russia over the next 20 years: a look of an economist. JeKO — ECO. 2013. № 8. Pp. 79-96. (in Russian).

15. The Global Competitiveness Index 2011-2012 (publication on September 7, 2013).