System traps: energy forecasts for Russia and the Tyumen region

Tyumen State University Herald. Social, Economic, and Law Research


Release:

Vesntik TSU. Economy (#11). 2013

Title: 
System traps: energy forecasts for Russia and the Tyumen region


About the authors:

Vladimir A. Davydenko, Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor, Head of the Research Center, Institute of Finance and Economics, University of Tyumen; v.a.davydenko@utmn.ru

Gulnara F. Romashkina, Dr. Sci. (Soc.), Professor, Head of the Department of Mathematical Methods, Information Technologies and Management Systems in Economics, University of Tyumen; g.f.romashkina@utmn.ru

Abstract:

This article focuses on the analysis of global trends in energy development, where Russia and the Tyumen region act in the context of global dynamics in terms of the theory of natural resource abundance (“resource curse”, “Dutch disease”). We consider the energy and raw materials as the base case scenario for Russia and the Tyumen region development, based on the rent distribution chains (E. Gurvich, K. Gaddy, B. Ickes, N. Suslov). The author employs the theories of institutional traps (V. Polterovich), traps of absence of confidence (S. Guriev), traps of competitiveness (V. Mau), that have a system nature and therefore, identified by the authors of this article as system traps. The analysis of the database and forecasts about the prospects for international energy markets up to the year of 2040 based on the methodology International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013). It is shown that all-Russian energy trend is jointly involved in the world’s growing trends according to key indicators of the production of liquid fuels (oil and other liquid hydrocarbons), coal, natural gas, nuclear power and renewable energy sources till 2040. This means that in the context of the energy trend in the next 25 years, Russia and the Tyumen region as “energy region” which are “inbuilt” in the global energy context are not endangered. However, as, on the one hand, the well-being of the extracting sector in Russia is associated with access to rent, and on the other hand, for the bias in favor of the commodity sector the retribution in the form of depressive conditions for high-tech industries is inevitable, these factors in the aggregate form a system trap combining three types of traps: the institutional trap, traps of distrust, and the traps of competitiveness.

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