The use of gis methods in the crop forecas

About the authors:

Vasiliy V. Novokhatin, Dr. Tech. Sci., Professor, Department of Cartography and Geographic Information Systems, Institute of Mathematics, Science and Information Technologies, Tyumen State University
Irina S. Tchubareva, Assistant Professor, Department of Cartography and Geoinformation Systems, Institute of Mathematics, Science and Information Technologies, Tyumen State University

Abstract:

The authors analysed the practical application of GIS methods in agriculture, and found the crop capacity and biomass quantity dependence. They calculated a formula to forecast the crop yield; determined the farmland actual area, assessed the dynamics of biomass accumulation in the growing season for main agricultural crops. The questions of the definition of crops types using automatic classification methods were raised. To determine the dependence between the crop yield and the vegetation indices, the formulas for wheat and oats were derived. Two farms located in the forest-steppe and forest zones of the Tyumen region were selected as research areas. Correlation for the Tyumen district was 0.88 and 0.84, and for the Omutinsky district — 0.88 and 0.86, respectively. The results of the crop forecast under the formulas derived for the Omutinsky district show an average deviation from actual performance for wheat — by 16.1%, for oats — by 7.3%. Deviations in the Tyumen region are smaller: the average for wheat is 5.4%, for oats — 5.7%.

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