Population dynamics of small mammals and some peculiarities of its forecastingin environmental monitoring

About the author:

Sergey N. Gashev, Dr. Sci. (Biol.), Professor, Head of the Department of Zoology and Evolutionary Ecology of Animals, University of Tyumen; gsn-61@mail.ru

Abstract:

Based on the long-term monitoring of the number of small mammalsin various natural areas of Western Siberia, this work displays that certain peculiarities of population dynamics of small mammals can be used to evaluate the naturaland anthropogenic environment changes in the system of regional or local environmental monitoring. Over 40 years of research prove the existence of cyclic waves of numberof small mammals within the periods (P) of approximately 3, 6 and 12 years.The model is based on the summation of cyclic functions of population number Y=f (P) of several orders: Y=Xо+k1*sin(2π*(Тi+1-Тi)/P1)+k2*sin(2π*(Тi+1-Тi)/P2)+ki*sin(2π*(Тi+1--Тi)/Pi). It reflects both intra-population density-dependent mechanisms of self-regulation, and external processes. The model can be relied on for forecasting population of small mammals both in academic (for understanding the mechanismsof adaptation and self-development of systems) and applied (for epidemiology, hunting, agriculture, etc.) fields.

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