Release:Bulletin of Tyumen State University. Ecology (№12). 2013
About the author:Stanislav P. Arefyev, Dr. Sci. (Biol.), Head of Sector of Biodiversity Dynamics and Natural Complexes, Institute of the Problems of Northern Development, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Leading Researcher, the International Institute of Cryology and Cryosophy, University of Tyumen; firstname.lastname@example.org
Abstract:To find out the climatic determination of annual wood gain in the conditions of the southern forest zone, generalized tree-ring chronology (TRC) of Pinus silvestris from sites of environmental monitoring of Tyumen and its vicinity (from 1900 (1936) to 2012) is studied. In STATISTICA program multiple regression of indexes of width of rings by parameters of air and ground temperatures, and precipitation in the year of formation of the ring and the previous year (annual and monthly, including winter) is calculated. In different cases 26 to 40 parameters are applied. The level of multiple correlation and determination of width of a ring by a two-year complex of monthly parameters of temperature and precipitation, systemically characterizing atmospheric circulation is revealed high (close to functional for some TRC (R→1.0)). High level of correlation of width of rings with a number of particular climatic parameters is revealed. To solve the inverse problem, factorial regression of climatic parameters of a set of separate TRC from different soil and hydrological conditions is calculated. The level of correlation depends on the number of applied TRC: 7 chronologies of indexed width of a ring are enough to provide functional relation (R=1.0) with average annual air temperature in the year of formation of a ring and the previous year as dependent variable. The results disprove the limited suitability of TRC of the subtaiga area in dendroclimatological reconstruction and prognosis.
1. Methods of dendrochronology: Applications in the environmental sciences / Eds. E.R. Cook, L.A. Kairiukstis. Dordrecht; Boston; London: Kluwer Acad. Publ., 1990. 364 p.
2. Vaganov, E.A., Shijatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S. Dendroklimaticheskie issledovanija v Uralo-Sibirskoj Subarktike [Dendroclimatological researches in Uralo-Siberian subarctic zone]. Novosibirsk: Nauka, 1996. 246 p. (in Russian).
3. Agafonov, L.I. Drevesno-kol’cevaja indikacija gidrologo-klimaticheskih uslovij v Zapadnoj Sibiri (diss. dokt.) [Tree-ring indication of hydroclimatic environment in West Siberia (Dokt. Diss.). Eekaterinburg, 2011. 231 p. (in Russian).
4. Shishov V.V., Vaganov E.A. Dendroclimatological evidence of climate changes across Siberia // Environmental Change in Siberia. Advances in Global Change Research. Vol. 40 (Heiko Balzter, ed.). Springer, 2010. Pp. 101-114.
5. Shijatov, S.G. Dinamika drevesnoj i kustarnikovoj rastitel’nosti v gorah Pripoljarnogo Urala pod vlijaniem sovremennyh izmenenij klimata [Dynamics of tree and shrub vegetation in the mountains of the Subpolar Ural under the influence of modern climate changes]. Ekaterinburg, 2009. 216 p. (in Russian).
6. Grebenjuk, G.N., Kuznecova, V.P. Modern dynamics of climate and phonological changeability of northern territories. Fundamental’nye issledovanija — Fundamental research. 2012. № 11 (part 5). Pp. 1063–1077. (in Russian).
7. Pavlova, V.N. The problem of evaluation of the impact of climate changes on the productivity of agricultural sphere in Russia: methodology, models, calculation results// Izvestija Samarskogo nauchnogo centra RAN — Bulletin of Samara Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences. Vol. 11. № 1 (7). 2009. Pp. 1543–1548. (in Russian).
8. Gashev, S.N., Aleshina, O.A., Aref’ev, S.P. et al. The initial stage of monitoring of ecosystems of Tyumen and its suburban zone. Vestnik ekologhii, lesovedeniya i landshaftovedeniya — Bulletin of Ecology, Forestry and Landscape Science. 2002. Issue 3. Tyumen. Pp. 80–93. (in Russian).
9. Gardner, S.E. Exponential Smoothing: The state of the Art // Journal of Forecasting. 1985.
V. 4. Pp. 1-28.
10. Fritts, H.C. Tree-ring analysis: a tool for water resources research // Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. 1969. Vol. 50 (1). Pp. 22-29.11. Aref’ev, S.P. Evaluation of cedar forest tolerance in West Siberia. Jekologija —Ecology. 1997. №. 3. Pp. 149–157. (in Russian).