Climatic factors in tree-ring chronologiesof Tyumen (west Siberia)

About the author:

Stanislav P. Arefyev, Dr. Sci. (Biol.), Head of Sector of Biodiversity Dynamics and Natural Complexes, Institute of the Problems of Northern Development, Tyumen Scientific Centre of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Leading Researcher, the International Institute of Cryology and Cryosophy, University of Tyumen; sp_arefyev@mail.ru

Abstract:

To find out the climatic determination of annual wood gain in the conditions of the southern forest zone, generalized tree-ring chronology (TRC) of Pinus silvestris from sites of environmental monitoring of Tyumen and its vicinity (from 1900 (1936) to 2012) is studied. In STATISTICA program multiple regression of indexes of width of rings by parameters of air and ground temperatures, and precipitation in the year of formation of the ring and the previous year (annual and monthly, including winter) is calculated. In different cases 26 to 40 parameters are applied. The level of multiple correlation and determination of width of a ring by a two-year complex of monthly parameters of temperature and precipitation, systemically characterizing atmospheric circulation is revealed high (close to functional for some TRC (R→1.0)). High level of correlation of width of rings with a number of particular climatic parameters is revealed. To solve the inverse problem, factorial regression of climatic parameters of a set of separate TRC from different soil and hydrological conditions is calculated. The level of correlation depends on the number of applied TRC: 7 chronologies of indexed width of a ring are enough to provide functional relation (R=1.0) with average annual air temperature in the year of formation of a ring and the previous year as dependent variable. The results disprove the limited suitability of TRC of the subtaiga area in dendroclimatological reconstruction and prognosis.

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